The professor who became famous for accurately predicting the outcome of every US presidential election since 1984 has given his verdict on the 2020 election as well. He predicted that Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Keep checking Trump vs. Biden polls for final results.
Allan Lichtman is professor in an American University. He has developed a system of “13 keys” that he uses to predict the outcome of every presidential election. Lichtman accurately predicted the outcome of the 2016 presidential election as well, and he even said that Trump will be impeached. Now in the 2020 election, he has forecasted that Joe Biden will defeat Trump in the election.
Litchman says, “The keys predict that Joe Biden will win the election”. But he also mentioned that some extraordinary factors might alter the outcome of the election. There are lots of different factors included in his 13 keys that he uses to determine the outcome.
According to Lichtman, 7 out of 13 keys support Biden, and six support Trump. That means Biden only has a slight lead on Trump.
The Keys That Support Trump
Here are the keys that Lichtman revealed support Trump.
- Trump is Incumbent.
- He doesn’t have a big republican competitor.
- He has fool proofed the military operations abroad, avoiding the chances of any failures.
- His main opponent does not appeal to Trump’s haters either.
These were the keys that support Trump.
But since more keys seem to support Biden, Lichtman suggests that Biden has a slight edge over Trump.
Keys That Support Biden
Here are the factors that seem to favor Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
- The coronavirus pandemic might play in his favor.
- The nationwide wave of protests against police brutality and racism.
- Social unrest because of the pandemic.
- Current economic collapse due to the pandemic.
- Scandals like impeachment and Russian meddling in the 2016 election have also hurt Trump’s reputation.
Another big advantage that Lichtman thinks Biden has is winning back of the house by Democrats in 2018. He also thinks that Trump only appeals to a small base of voters, and this also gives Biden one point in the 13 keys system.
Things Outside The 13 Keys
The above mentioned factors are not all when it comes to determining the outcome of 2020 election. Lichtman suggests that there are things outside the 13 keys as well that can affect the outcome of the election. These things are Russian meddling in the election and voters suppression.
At the end he says that it is up to the voters to choose and decide the future of the democracy, so, they should get out and vote, even if they are asked to vote by mail.
Before The 2016 Election
Before the outcome of the 2016 election showed up after the Election Day, a majority of presidential poll results were showing Clinton’s lead over Trump. But even then Professor Lichtman’s 13 key rule predicted that Donald Trump would win, and here we are!
For the 2016 election Lichtman considered factors like Gary Johnson’s third party run, failure of Democrats in the midterm election and also the fact that then President of the United States Barack Obama was not in the presidential race anymore. He mentioned that because of Trump, 2016’s presidential election was the most difficult election he had ever assessed in his life.
Lichtman started in the era of Ronald Reagan when he won the election in 1984. It was his first prediction. In 2000 he thought Gore would win the election, Gore won the popular vote, but lost in the presidential election to George W. Bush. In those election, the Supreme Court ruled to stop recounting of votes in Florida. He still supports the prediction he made in 2000, he conforms its validity to date.
The Bottom Line
So, we can clearly see that Lichtman’s system works on 13 key rule. The 13 keys are actually the key factors that determine the outcome of any US presidential election.
However, notice that according to the system that Lichtman uses for prediction, Biden only has a narrow lead of 1 point (7 to 6). He also mentions that some outside factors can change the outcome as well. So, nothing is conclusive in this prediction. Let’s see the Trump vs. Biden North Carolina polls and hope for the best.